Copeland: What are the chances of Canada and ISAF leaving behind a functional Afghan defence force?
Former diplomat; author of Guerrilla Diplomacy
Most indications appear negative.
The disturbing surge in "blue on green" insider attacks does not bode well, and the resulting ISAF decision to suspend joint operations and limit shared military space suggests that the 2014 transfer plan is in serious trouble.
The echoes of the failed "Vietnamization" project are becoming more resonant.
The fundamental strategic misjudgment was the failure to recognize that most achievable objectives – dismantling the Al-Qaeda network, scattering its leadership, and removing the Taliban – had been realized by 2003.
That error is looking increasingly irrecoverable.