What would be the regional fallout from the end of Assad's regime?

The regime will inevitably fall to the democratic forces sweeping young people in the region. Hopefully, Syria will bind together as a democratic state and retain its pluralist and secular personality. A democracy in Syria would be great news for Lebanon and bad news for Iran.

Western democracies cannot continue to fear change to the status quo because of wider strategic issues. It has been a costly illusion that repressive stability equates to security.

Assad has gamed Syria’s role as a “confrontation state.” Israeli government folk are said to fear that a populist democracy in Syria would be more sympathetic to the plight of the Palestinians. They probably would be but that is increasingly likely to be the case for everybody. The solution to that is for Israel to work genuinely on the problem, not to hang hopes the status quo can be frozen on the survivability of dictators.

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It is not yet clear what is happening in Egypt. Some of the protesters there last winter are now facing the kind of restrictions they were protesting about.

What comes next in Lybia is uncleàr.  Who will emerge post-Gadhafi in that country, whether will be a new civil war,  and what role a new government in Tripoli might seek to play beyond its borders are all unanswered questions.

Iraq is still unstable.

A collapse of decades of Assad family rule in Syria will lead to instability as well.

What are the constants? Israel and its West Bank settlements make the Arab World worry. And Iran and its nuclear program make Israel worry. With increased uncertainty in the Middle East, we all should worry.

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The Libyan domino probably won’t knock over the Syrian domino. Why? Gaddafi only fell with the assistance of six months of NATO air strikes, which were critical to the rebel victory. There is no such appetite for similar action by NATO, the UN Security Council, or the Arab League in the case of Syria. Assad also has a professional army and an iron grip on his inner political circle. No Gaddafi-like defections here to give strength to the insurgency. He will be difficult to pry loose even as the streets of Syria turn red with the blood of its citizens.

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This is a tough question. The answer would depend (the regime hasn’t collapsed just yet) on the ability and willingness of Assad’s opponents to hang together. If it becomes Sunni vs. Shia/Alawite, there would be a real temptation of outsiders to intervene.

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