What issue should John Baird prioritize?

Economic power is shifting away from the United States, Canada’s traditional market for goods, services, and investment, to the fast-rising economies of the Asia-Pacific region. Trade diversification will be critical in this decade to securing Canada’s future. We we can no longer count on the US to sustain our economic growth.

Canada must also move ahead quickly with the Canada-US Shared Vision for Perimeter Security and Economic Competitiveness. This will not be easy. President Obama, whose engagement is essential to the success of this endeavour is already in campaign mode to secure a second term.

The “Arab Spring” presents great risks but also enormous potential to transform a region where ordinary citizens have taken to the streets, rejecting violence and religious and political extremism. Canada should be at the forefront of those offering assistance to those countries now trying to build a viable political and economic order.

We also need to forge new partnerships with other “Constructive Powers,” like us, who punch above their weight and are committed to building a new, stable international order such as Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Turkey, South Africa, Brazil, Korea, Japan, South Africa, Switzerland, Norway.

The marketing of Canada begins with our foreign service. The days of strict message control and gag orders must end. If the department is to do its job, Mr. Baird must let his officials speak freely.

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The new Foreign  Minister will have to signal Canada’s priorities in the first few weeks. He will have to pay attention to the war in Libya and make clear whether Canada has embraced regime change as a goal.  The Foreign Minister should also emphasize Canada’s commitments to open trading systems, and to new agreements in Asia and Latin America. In both regions, the government will have to put meat on the bones to deepen Canada’s trading and investment relationships. Finally, the Minister will have to move forward with the United States in removing the obstacles to trade and mobility and to smartening our shared border.

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Our utmost priority should be to develop effective ways of accompanying the current transformations in the Arab world. Working through the IMF and the World Bank will not do. Canada is militarily involved in Libya; it is concerned about terrorism and extremism and it seeks a solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict that addresses the security concerns of the State of Israel. In the medium to long term, only genuine democracy in the Arab world will allow us to consolidate gains on all these fronts. Our NATO partners, chief among them the United States, have taken proactive steps of their own to support change in that part of the world. Burden sharing in NATO should not be limited to the cost of military endeavours. It should also extend to other engagements intended to make ours a safer and more secure world.

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Among many strategic priorities, none presses for enhanced attention more  than Canada Asia relations. It is obvious that Asia is now more than 50% of global GDP and its consumers are in a catch up process in goods and services with the developed world. That’s where the critical mass of world population resides.

Asian nations will as well be playing a more critical role in global governance, directed to the questions of peace and security, enhancement of trade in goods and services, and in the functions of the multi- lateral process in regional and global institutions.

Canada must see its self interest in building relationships, in exchanges of people, in promoting its democratic values without confrontation. The overall theme of engagement at all levels of positive human interaction.

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Developing fuller relations with emerging countries should be a priority for the new minister. Our agenda with these countries must include not only the standard issues of strict bilateral concerns (trade, investment, immigration etc) but it must also foster an on-going dialogue on major global issues.

The active participation of  China, India, Brasil, Mexico, South Africa and other emerging states is essential to progress on issues such as food security, nuclear proliferation, global health or the reform of international institutions. They also have influence over the management of conflicts such as Libya and Afghnistan. Our relations with these countries need to be defined in terms of partnership of equals, just as we view our relations with Europe. Only by developing strong relations with emerging can we hope to protect our interests and promote our values in the future.

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Minister Baird needs to rescue our flagging reputation.  It doesn’t help that his boss continues to send slings and arrows to the Middle East. But surely his own reputation as the House of Commons bully can help him to muscle a more enlightened view into play. He should also take on the sidelined issue of communicating with Canadians about foreign policy. Silence doesn’t work when our military is engaged in Afghanistan. It’s not useful when Canadians need information about humanitarian aid in Africa. We not talking about espionage here, we’d just like to know what’s going on. How about it Mr. Baird? A weekly report card on Foreign Affairs.

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Canada is a leading middle power with enormous potential to influence our neighbour the US of America. The priority of effort from Min Baird should be advancing Smart Power with US tangible support aimed at the Prevention of Conflicts in potentially imploding nations and concurrently rebuilding the decimated Diplomatic Corps to equal capabilities internationally as the Canadian Forces to pro-actively influence and diffuse frictions leasing crisis and massive abuses of human rights.

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John Baird should concentrate on three things:

Getting up to speed on Libya and what the NATO end game is there . It is a military operation now, but what comes next is going to be an issue for Foreign Affairs.

What role to play in convincing the U.S. State Department to approve the Oil Sand Pipeline through the middle of the United Stateswhich will bring Oil Sands crude into the refining hub in Texas.

Approval would provide a guaranteed market, by tie us even more to the slow growing U.S. Economy.

If State says no, then the pressure will be on in Canada to approve the Gateway pipeline to the west coast. It will take longer, but tie our Oil Sands exports to the fast growing economies of China and the rest of Asia.

What role is Canada going to play at the United Nations? Having been rebuffed for a seat on the Security Council last fall.

And how will we finesse the resolution on Palestinian statehood at the General Assembly this fall?

Clearly, John Baird has some studying to do.

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Never mind what I think.  Here’s what the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada’s panel of nearly 700 Canadians with professional interests in Asia have to say: The top priority for Mr Baird is to develop an Asia Strategy for Canada.  It should have a regional as well as bilateral focus, and should i) strengthen educational linkages, ii) encourage Asian companies to invest in Canada, especially regional head offices, and iii) promote teaching about Asia and Asian languages in the school system. Our panel believes that a strategic focus on Asia would have the added benefit of enhancing Canada’s standing in the world and improving our bargaining position with the US.  Hence, an Asia Strategy is not just a set of geographic programs, but is central to Canada’s domestic and global interests. More at www.asiapacific.ca

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Support the “Arab awakening.”

The Globe and Mail describes Stephen Harper as a “skeptic” about the Arab Spring, because of its “risks.” Syrian protestors, like young Egyptians, are the ones at risk, apart from dictators. Protestors need our support and if they succeed, short-term financial help to bridge the costs of change. At the G-8, Canada callously referred them to long-term institutional investors.

As usual, diplomats were surprised by the Arab awakening. As NYT’s Roger Cohen put it, “Nobody predicted the Arab Spring because nobody can predict the human spirit.” We protect the status quo, equating it with stability, buying false choices, between dictators and jihadism, a threat to Israel, and messy outcomes. But the status quo ante in the Middle East was inherently unstable.

Change there is rattling authoritarians everywhere, making it a global issue. We need to stay on the right side of history and our own values.

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It would make sense to start with the two wars Canada is now in. We are on our way out of Kandahar militarily, but it is not at all clear that we will be able to keep our development activities going because of lack of security. Yet we have invested heavily, above all in lives lost. What now? In Libya, what do we expect/want to see happen? Assuming the country does not descend into endless civil war, are we prepared to commit to development? One can argue that those who helped “break” physically the country have some obligation to reconstruct. Answers would be a start. Then there is the matter of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations where Canada’s position has taken a strange turn. Clarity would be a start.

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I’m a Canadian living between New York and Washington, where I work with the UN, Brookings and NYU. I track foreign policy issues from Afghanistan to the Arab Spring to the rise of new powers. So perhaps it’s a worrying sign for Canadian foreign policy that when I saw this week’s question, “What issue should John Baird prioritize?”, my first thought was: Who’s John Baird? (I had to Google it.)

That could be a sign of early senility. But ask Canada’s allies what our foreign policy stands now, and you get a blank stare. Wonder why Canada lost its bid for a UN Security Council seat? Unpopular policies on climate and the Middle East, for sure. The bigger point, though, is no one knows what Canada stands for anymore. Five foreign ministers in five years doesn’t help. Canada has talented diplomats: John Baird’s first priority should be unleashing them.

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The over-riding issue for Minister Baird is to use the multi-year perspective of a majority government mandate to stake out a coherent, independent and effective foreign policy that sees Canada punching above its weight in international affairs. This is what Canadians expect of their government. That means engaging pro-actively and constructively on the major contemporary issues, reflecting our interests and values, taking advantage of our strengths, building on our historic role and restoring pride in Canada’s approach and contributions. No single issue should be the top priority as focus and urgency will be dictated by events. Instead, the focus should be on taking this work seriously, investing in our people and capacity, reducing partisanship and emphasizing our national interests.

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